UK: Market’s negative positioning towards Brexit negotiations - Westpac

Distinctly more positive tone from UK and EU Brexit negotiators Raab and Barnier has highlighted the market’s negative positioning towards recently tense Brexit negotiations, according to Tim Riddell, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“A decent rebound back to 1.30 this week may be unwinding some of the market’s fears over a “no deal” exit, but the talks are still to resolve the thorny issues over customs and the Irish border.”

“Nevertheless, talks are more positive and concerns over an October deadline with media reports of a possible EU Brexit summit in November gaining traction. Recent GBP price action may indicate interim support, but scope for a more substantial rebound seems limited.”

“UK politics should now start to become more of an immediate issue as the annual party conferences begin. Even if EU and UK negotiators gain common ground, internal Tory politics could mean that any agreement that looks like a “soft Brexit” could trigger unrest and a destructive leadership challenge.”

“Although rebounding nicely, GBP remains in an effective 1.27-1.35 range, and remains vulnerable to Brexit politics.”

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