Markets: What is most important in the week ahead? – Nordea Markets

Politics are likely to remain important across global markets as trade tariffs, sanctions and US politics are all likely to keep affecting markets, according to analysts at Nordea Markets.
Key Quotes
“The yield curve discussion will be informed by upcoming inflation and survey data. Weaker leading indicators and a slowing of industrial growth momentum would generally imply further flattening pressures unless inflation picks up, that is.”
“The key macro events over the week is US core PCE inflation on Thursday 30 August and Euro-area core HICP inflation on Friday August 31.”
“Core inflation readings in the Euro area and the US have been helpful in predicting the path of the dollar in recent years. Late this autumn the Euro-area core inflation reading is set to pick up to 1.5% due to base effects stemming from unusually low monthly inflation readings in eg October last year. Such a core inflation outcome would be the highest since 2013 and be a bit supportive of the EUR, at least for psychological reasons. We are not there yet, though. The August inflation reading is unlikely to cause any such fireworks, we see some downside risks to our forecast for core inflation of 1.1%.”
“In Sweden, a raft of data is being readied by the usual flocks of statisticians: household lending, retail sales, confidence numbers and wage growth. Of these releases the wage growth numbers (Thursday 30 August) are the most important, as low wage growth is a key driver behind the Riksbank’s perennial inflation disappointments.”
“The Norwegian market also has a fair amount of releases to look forward to: unemployment (both measures), consumer confidence, retail sales, credit growth and Norges Bank’s FX purchases. None of these releases are likely to rock the boat ahead of Norges Bank’s next decision to hike the policy rate on 20 September. It’s lift-off time!”

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