Forex Today: Antipodeans sold-off into weak data, eyes on US PCE, Canada GDP

Finally, we had an eventful Asian session, although that didn't go well with Antipodeans, as the Australian Q2 Capex and New Zealand,business confidence data disappointed. The Kiwi was the biggest loser, down nearly 1% near 0.6650 levels while the Aussie dropped -0.50% to 0.7275 region. The Yen remained better bid against the US dollar amid moderate risk-aversion, as reflected upon the Asian equities.
Meanwhile, the sell-off in the Antipodeans offered some support to the US dollar against the EUR, the GBP and CAD while the pound stalled its Brexit optimism-led upside near 1.3040 levels.
Among the commodities, both crude benchmarks were buoyed by a bigger-than-expected drop in the US crude stockpiles, as reported by the EIA a day before while gold prices traded weaker near $ 1210 levels ahead of the Fed’s most preferred inflation data due to be released later today.
Main topics in Asia
Canada’s Freeland: NAFTA trade negotiations with the US were at a "very intense moment"
Following the trade talks with the US Trade Representative Lighthizer late-Wednesday, Canada’s Foreign Minister Freeland came out on the wires, via Reuters, noting the following.
Trump issues order on adjusting imports of aluminium in the US
Livesquawk is out with the latest comments from the US President Trump, as he comments on the US metals tariffs.
Trump signs proclamation allowing targeted relief from steel quotas on S. Korea, Argentina and Brazil, and Aluminum quotas from Argentina
The US Commerce Department issued a statement last minutes, citing that the US President Trump signed a proclamation allowing targeted relief from steel quotas on South Korea, Argentina and Brazil, and Aluminum quotas from Argentina.
Australia's Q2 Capex headline arrives at -2.5% vs +0.6% expected
Australian capex (private capital expenditure) for Q2 shows a capex 'headline' of -2.5% q/q vs +0.6% expected and +0.4% last. The 3rd estimate for 2018/19 investment expectations came at AUD 102 bn, which is a weak result.
NZ: Headline business confidence fell a further 5 points in August - ANZ
Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist at ANZ, notes that New Zealand’s headline business confidence fell a further 5 points in August, but firms’ views of their own activity were steady.
Sources: China, N. Korea increase economic exchanges in border areas - Yonhap
South Korea’s state news agency, Yonhap, quoted sources with the knowledge of the matter on Thursday, citing that China is seen improving its economic cooperation with North Korea, as the Chinese authorities recently increased the economic exchanges near the North Korean border.
Gold Technical Analysis: Stuck in a rising broadening wedge
Gold has charted a rising broadening wedge on the hourly chart. More importantly, the 100-hour moving average (MA) has met the wedge support of $1,203,50.
Key Focus ahead
Markets will finally see an eventful EU calendar today, with the German Prelim CPI release – the main event risk that will drop in at 1200 GMT. Ahead of the German inflation, the German jobs data is due at 0755 GMT, followed by the UK mortgage approvals and net lending to individuals data at 0830 GMT. Also, a slew of confidence numbers from the Eurozone will be reported at 0930 GMT, which will offer some trading incentives to the EUR, GBP traders.
The NA session also looks busy, with the US core PCE price index, jobless claims and personal spending data slated for release at 1230 GMT. At the same time, the Canadian Q2 GDP will be reported, with annualized q/q figures seen rising 3.0% versus 1.3% previous. Later in the American mid-morning, the ECB Vice-President Jens Weidmann’s speech will be closely heard for any hints on the ECB’s rate hike plans.
EUR/USD: Focus on inflation differential, monthly candle signals bear exhaustion
The currency pair could pick up a strong bid in the run-up to the US inflation release if the German preliminary consumer price index (CPI) reading, due for release at, 12:30 GMT, beats estimates.
GBP/USD inches closer to 1.3050 on Brexit optimism, US PCE eyed
The GBP/USD pair broke slightly higher from the overnight bullish consolidation and hit fresh four-week highs at 1.3039, now awaiting fresh impetus for the next push higher.    
US PCE inflation preview: don't expect too much action here
Fresh US monthly Income and Spending data, including PCE inflation, will be out this Thursday. Fed's favorite inflation reading usually has a limited immediate effect on the USD but provides hints on future central bank's moves.
Canada: Upside GDP surprise to produce a knee-jerk move lower in USDCAD - TDS
According to analysts at TD Securities, given the repricing of the BoC and the positive flow of NAFTA headlines, they think the loonie has priced in a lot of the good news.
How to trade Canada's quarterly GDP with USD/CAD
Canada's quarterly GDP report has a significant impact and moves the C$. The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
China: Official manufacturing PMI to drop further to 51.1 in August - Nomura
Analysts at Nomura offer key insights on the official August manufacturing and services PMIs from China will be released on Friday at 0100 GMT.
GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
WEDNESDAY, AUG 29
24h
 EUR Slovak National Uprising anniversary
 
 
23:50
 JPY Retail Trade (YoY)
1.5%
1.2%
1.7% 
23:50
 JPY Foreign bond investment
¥235.5B
 
¥-1,922.1B 
23:50
 JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks
¥-334.9B
 
¥-510.1B 
THURSDAY, AUG 30
24h
 TRY Victory Day
 
 
01:00
 NZD ANZ Business Confidence
-50.3
 
-44.9
01:00
 NZD ANZ Activity Outlook
3.8%
 
3.8%
01:30
 AUD Private Capital Expenditure
-2.5%
0.6%
0.4%
01:30
 AUD Building Permits (MoM)
-5.2%
-2.5%
6.4%
01:30
 AUD Building Permits (YoY)
-5.6%
 
1.6%
06:00
 EUR Import Price Index (MoM)
 
0.0%
0.5%
06:00
 EUR Import Price Index (YoY)
 
5.2%
4.8%
06:00
 DKK Industrial Outlook
 
 
3
06:00
 ZAR Private Sector Credit
 
5.90%
5.68%
06:00
 ZAR M3 Money Supply (YoY)
 
5.70%
5.77%
06:00
 NOK Retail Sales
 
1.0%
-2.9%
07:00
 EUR HICP (YoY)
 
2.3%
2.3%
07:00
 EUR HICP (MoM)
 
 
-1.2%
07:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
 
-0.7%
07:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
2.2%
2.2%
07:00
 EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)
 
 
0.4%
07:00
 EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)
 
 
3%
07:00
 CHF KOF Leading Indicator
 
101.1
101.1
07:00
 SEK Consumer Confidence (MoM)
 
100.0
99.8
07:55
 EUR Unemployment Rate s.a.
 
5.2%
5.2%
07:55
 EUR Unemployment Change
 
-8K
-6K
08:30
 GBP Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)
 
£5.5B
£5.4B
08:30
 GBP Consumer Credit
 
£1.500B
£1.567B
08:30
 GBP Mortgage Approvals
 
65.000K
65.619K
08:30
 GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY)
 
 
1.7%
08:30
 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM)
 
0.2%
-0.3%
08:30
 EUR Consumer Confidence
 
 
1.3
08:30
 EUR Business Confidence
 
 
2.5
08:30
 HKD Retail Sales
 
 
12%
09:00
 EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)
 
 
8.2%
09:00
 ISK Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
 
0%
09:00
 ISK Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
 
2.7%
09:00
 EUR Consumer Confidence
 
-1.9
-1.9
09:00
 EUR Services Sentiment
 
15.1
15.3
09:00
 EUR Industrial Confidence
 
5.5
5.8
09:00
 EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator
 
111.9
112.1
09:00
 EUR Business Climate
 
1.28
1.29
09:30
 ZAR Producer Price Index (MoM)
 
0.4%
0.9%
09:30
 ZAR Producer Price Index (YoY)
 
5.2%
5.9%
09:45
 EUR 10-y Bond Auction
 
 
2.87%
n/a
 EUR 5-y Bond Auction
 
 
1.8%
11:00
 BRL Inflation Index/IGP-M
 
 
11:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
 
0.38%
11:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
 
2.17%
12:00
 EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
 
2.0%
2.1%
12:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
0.1%
0.3%
12:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
2%
2%
12:00
 EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)
 
0.1%
0.4%
12:00
 CLP Industrial Production (YoY)
 
 
7.2%
12:30
 USD Personal Spending
 
0.4%
0.4%
12:30
 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY)
 
2.0%
1.9%
12:30
 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM)
 
0.2%
0.1%
12:30
 USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)
 
2.2%
2.2%
12:30
 USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)
 
0.1%
0.1%
12:30
 USD Personal Income (MoM)
 
0.3%
0.4%
12:30
 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
 
1.725M
1.727M
12:30
 USD Initial Jobless Claims
 
214K
210K
12:30
 CAD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ)
 
3.0%
1.3%
12:30
 CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)
 
0.1%
0.5%
13:00
 RUB Central Bank Reserves $
 
 
$452.2B
14:30
 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change
 
64B
48B
17:30
 EUR German Buba President Weidmann speech
 
 
19:00
 ARS Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY)
 
 
23:00
 KRW Industrial Output Growth
 
 
-0.6%
23:00
 KRW Industrial Output (YoY)
 
 
-0.4%
23:00
 KRW Service Sector Output
 
 
0.2%
23:01
 GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence
 
-10
-10
23:30
 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)
 
0.8%
0.8%
23:30
 JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
0.8%
0.9%
23:30
 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)
 
0.5%
0.5%
23:30
 JPY Unemployment Rate
 
2.4%
2.4%
23:30
 JPY Jobs/applicants ratio
 
1.62
1.62
23:50
 JPY Industrial Production (YoY)
 
1.0%
-0.9%
23:50
 JPY Industrial Production (MoM)
 
0.2%
-1.8%
FRIDAY, AUG 31
01:00
 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI
 
51.3
51.2
01:00
 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI
 
54.8
54.0
01:00
 KRW BoK Interest Rate Decision
 
 
1.5%
n/a
 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
 
 
2.2%
01:30
 AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY)
 
 
4.5%
01:30
 AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM)
 
0.4%
0.3%
05:00
 PEN Inflation
 
 
05:00
 JPY Construction Orders (YoY)
 
 
-6.5%
05:00
 JPY Housing Starts (YoY)
 
-3.8%
-7.1%
05:00
 JPY Annualized Housing Starts
 
 
0.915M
06:00
 EUR Retail Sales (MoM)
 
1.0%
1.2%
06:00
 EUR Retail Sales (YoY)
 
 
3%
06:00
 DKK Unemployment Rate
 
 
3.2%
06:00
 DKK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
 
 
0.4%
06:00
 GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)
 
2.7%
2.5%
06:00
 GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)
 
0.1%
0.6%
06:00
 NOK Credit Indicator
 
 
5.8%
06:45
 EUR Producer Prices (MoM)
 
 
0.1%
06:45
 EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM)
 
0.5%
-0.1%
06:45
 EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)
 
 
2.6%
07:00
 EUR Retail Sales (YoY)
 
 
0.1%
07:00
 EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
 
 
0.7%
07:00
 HUF Producer Price Index (YoY)
 
 
7.5%
07:00
 HUF Trade Balance
 
 
€1,070M
07:00
 CZK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
 
 
2.3%
08:00
 EUR Unemployment
 
10.8%
10.9%
08:00
 PLN Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
-0.1%
-0.1%
08:00
 PLN Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
2%
2%
09:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
1.4%
1.5%
09:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)
 
1.6%
1.9%
09:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
0.2%
0.3%
09:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)
 
-0.1%
-1.4%
09:00
 PLN Gross Domestic Product Qtr (YoY)
 
5.1%
5.1%
09:00
 EUR Current Account Balance
 
 
€2.44B
09:00
 EUR Retail Sales (YoY)
 
 
4.6%
09:00
 EUR Unemployment Rate
 
8.2%
8.3%
09:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)
 
1.1%
1.1%
09:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)
 
 
-0.3%
09:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)
 
2.1%
2.1%
09:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)
 
 
-0.5%
09:00
 NOK Registered Unemployment s.a
 
 
83.93K
09:00
 NOK Registered Unemployment n.s.a
 
 
2.5%
10:00
 EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
 
0.2%
0.2%
10:00
 EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
 
1.1%
1.1%
10:00
 EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
 
2.3%
2.3%
10:00
 EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
 
0.5%
0.5%
10:00
 INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR
 
 
10:00
 INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR
 
 
4,290.33B
11:30
 INR Bank Loan Growth
 
 
12.7%
11:30
 INR FX Reserves, USD
 
 
$400.85B
12:00
 BRL Unemployment Rate
 
 
12.4%
12:00
 CLP Unemployment rate
 
 
7.2%
12:00
 ZAR Trade Balance (in Rands)
 
 
12B
12:30
 CAD Raw Material Price Index
 
-0.3%
0.5%
12:30
 CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM)
 
0.0%
0.5%
13:00
 EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
 
 
0.3%
13:30
 BRL Primary Budget Surplus
 
 
13:30
 BRL Nominal Budget Balance
 
 
13:45
 USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index
 
63.0
65.5
14:00
 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
 
95.9
95.3
15:00
 COP National Jobless Rate
 
 
9.1%
17:00
 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
 
 
860
19:30
 USD CFTC Oil NC net positions
 
 
538.8K
19:30
 USD CFTC Gold NC net positions
 
 
$-8.7K
19:30
 USD CFTC USD NC net positions
 
 
$124.2K
19:30
 GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions
 
 
£-72.3K
19:30
 JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions
 
 
¥-47.4K
19:30
 EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions
 
 
€-4.8K
19:30
 AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions
 
 
$-50.2K
20:00
 COP Interest rate
 
 
4.25%
SATURDAY, SEP 01
00:00
 KRW Trade Balance
 
 
$6.91B
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