EURUSD Stable Despite Poor Eurozone Confidence Data

EUR PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:

• Economic confidence in the Eurozone was weaker than expected in August.
• However, the impact on EURUSD will likely be minimal as the pair consolidates after its gains over the past two weeks.

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EUROZONE CONFIDENCE WEAKENS

Confidence in the Eurozone fell by more than expected in August, according to the latest official data. However, that is unlikely to change the outlook for Eurozone monetary policy and the impact on EURUSD will therefore likely be minimal.

EURUSD PRICE CHART, FIVE-MINUTE TIMEFRAME (AUGUST 30, 2018)

In detail, the European Commission data showed:

• Business climate 1.22 (expected: 1.26, previous: 1.30)
• Economic confidence down for the 8th successive month at 111.6 (expected: 111.9, previous: 112.1)
• Industrial confidence 5.5 (expected: 5.5, previous: 5.8)
• Services confidence 14.7 (expected: 15.2, previous: 15.3)
• Consumer confidence (Final) -1.9 (expected: -1.9, previous: 1.9)

However, the principal factors influencing EURUSD remain the trade talks between the US, Mexico and Canada to amend the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the separate US-China trade dispute – reducing the influence of economic data.

The leaders of both the US and Canada expressed optimism Wednesday that a new NAFTA deal will be reached by Friday, even though some issues remain unresolved.

While concerns about Italy’s debts could continue to dent confidence in the Euro, the next immediate focus will be preliminary German inflation figures that are due to be released at 1200 GMT. They are expected to show that German consumer prices rose by 0.1% month/month in August, down from 0.3%, and by 2.0% year/year, unchanged from July. Earlier, German unemployment numbers showed the expected fall of 8,000 in August while the unemployment claims rate was also as expected at an unchanged 5.2%.

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